Stop guessing.
Start finding edges.

Our price on every NFL and college football game, next to the market at 30 books. Every qualifying pick posted before kickoff with the line, price and stake. No touts. No hindsight. Just the model, the market, and the record.

All picks · 2026
+119.7u422–420+12.4% ROI
842 picks · 968.6u staked
NFL · 2026
+65.7u114–115+24.1% ROI
229 picks · 272.8u staked
NCAAF · 2026
+54.0u308–305+7.8% ROI
613 picks · 695.8u staked
WHAT YOU GET

The model, the market, and the record

WEEK 5 · POSTED SUN OCT 4, 8:46 PM ET · KICKOFF THU OCT 8, 8:15 PM ET
FINAL TB 24 · DAL 16
8:15 PM ET · Thu Oct 829 books
Tampa Bay
24.0
Dallas
29.5
Open · spread
TB +9.5
Market · at kickoff
TB +9.5 −105
picked at TB +10 −108
Model
TB +5.4
Open · moneyline
TB +426
Market · at kickoff
TB +390
picked at TB +450
Model
TB 33%
Open · total
47.5
Market · at kickoff
49
picked at Over 46.5 −113
Model total
53.5
Picks · graded
TB +10 −108Pinnacle · 1.46u
WON +1.35u
+13.2% edge
TB +450Matchbook · 2.0u
WON +9.00u
+119% edge
Over 46.5 −113BetRivers · 1.56u
LOST −1.56u
+5.6% edge
Net +8.79u on the game · 5.02u stakedEvery pick is graded like this
The line from the opener to kickoff
Sun · posted
TB +9.5
47.5 · +426
Mon
TB +10
47.5 · +424
Tue
TB +8.5
47.5 · +350
Wed
TB +8.5
48 · +350
Kickoff
TB +9.5
49 · +390
01

Model line vs. market line, every game.

A projected score and win probability for both sides of every NFL and college football game, next to the consensus at 30 books. The margin is where the model disagrees; the edge is whether that disagreement pays at the price on offer.

02

The margin, broken down.

Each game page attributes the model's line to its inputs, team strength, quarterback, injuries, rest, weather and home field, in points, and shows every posted pick with its book, price and stake.

03

Posted before kickoff, sized, graded at the price posted.

Every qualifying pick is time-stamped before kickoff with the line, price and book, sized by quarter-Kelly on the shrunk edge and capped at 2 units, then graded at that price. The ledger holds every one.

PRICING

Pick a board. Check the record first.

A free account shows every graded pick. A plan opens this week's picks. Cancel anytime.

BEST VALUE
Season Pass
Everything through the Super Bowl
$249one payment
✓All-Access to the end of the football season: NFL Board, NFL DFS, NCAAF Board
✓Every posted pick with stake and book, model vs. market on every game
✓Top Picks, Picks, Lines and the full graded record
✓Covers the College Football Playoff, the NFL playoffs and the Super Bowl
MOST POPULAR
All-Access
NFL + DFS + NCAAF
$79.99/month
or $39.99/week
✓NFL Board, NFL DFS and NCAAF Board
✓Every posted pick, with stake and book
✓Model vs market on every game
✓Top Picks, Picks and line shopping at every book
✓The full graded record
NFL + DFS
Pro football, picks and DFS
$59.99/month
or $29.99/week
✓NFL Board and NFL DFS
✓Every posted NFL pick, with stake and book
✓Model vs market on every NFL game
✓Line shopping at every book
✓The full graded record
NCAAF
College football
$39.99/month
or $19.99/week
✓NCAAF Board
✓Every posted college pick, with stake and book
✓Model vs market on every NCAAF game
✓Line shopping at every book
✓The full graded record

Season Pass: $249 once vs. $79.99 a month. The pass ends on February 15, 2027. After that, every sport is weekly, monthly, or a rest-of-season pass, your choice. Renews automatically for the 2027 season on August 16, 2027 at $249; cancel any time before then.

Monthly and weekly plans renew automatically until you cancel · cancel anytime from Settings · access runs to the end of the paid period · no refunds

The record is open. Read it before you pay for anything.

Season Pass: $249 for full access through the Super Bowl. Or start free and read the record first.